Military Decision Making
The Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) exam is worth 60% of the C600 block grade and is due after lesson C634. Specifically, this exam has seven requirements for you to apply the MDMP to a tactical scenario.
All work must be your own. Do not discuss this examination or your answers with anyone other than a Department of Distance Education (DDE) instructor. Your answers to exam questions must be typed and double-spaced throughout, using Times New Roman 12-pitch font and one-inch margins. This exam does not have an associated CGSC Form 1009W Grading Rubric.
Overview: In Leavenworth Papers #11 “Rangers: Selected Combat Operations in World War II,” Dr. Michael J. King notes that “The rescue of 511 American and Allied prisoners from a Japanese POW compound near Cabanatuan in the Philippines by elements of the 6th Ranger
Battalion, reinforced by Alamo Scouts and Filipino guerrillas, was the most complex operation that Rangers conducted during World War II. It was also one of the most successful.”
That rescue has been chronicled in the 2005 movie The Great Raid and several books including Hour of Redemption by Forrest Bryant Johnson, The Ghost Soldiers by Hampton Sides, and is the focus of Chapter 6 of King’s work. Although the movie and other references may help you understand the scenario more, this examination scenario is based solely on the information provided in King’s work. You may refer back to the C600 online lessons and readings to review key concepts about MDMP. ADRP 1-02 dated September 2013 and FM 6-0 dated May 2014 are the primary doctrinal references for this examination. Additionally, you should review the Military Review article by Dr. Tom Clark and the three student aids posted with the exam.
Read Chapter 6 “Cabanatuan” of Leavenworth Papers #11, and then provide your responses to the seven requirements which begin on page three of this document. A PDF version of the CSI publication is available in Blackboard, posted with this exam. It is also available online at www.cgsc.edu/carl/download/csipubs/king.pdf .
If you state information from the lessons, readings, doctrinal manuals or other references as part of your answer, you must include a citation in accordance with ST 22-2. You may use parenthetical citations, endnotes or footnotes.
CGSC does not tolerate cheating, plagiarism, or unauthorized collaboration. Therefore, you should review CGSC Bulletin #920, Academic Ethics Policy (February 2011) and the DDE Academic Ethics brief posted on the course information page. Violation of academic ethics will result in an investigation and possible removal from the course.
***** FOR INSTRUCTOR USE ONLY***********
Requirement #1 Running Estimate (10 points) _______/10
Requirement #2 The Problem (10 points) _______/10
Requirement #3 The Mission (10 points) _______/10
Requirement #4 Purpose and Task (30 points) _______/30
Requirement #5 Commander’s Critical Information Requirements (10 points) _______/10
Requirement #6 Commander’s Judgment (10 points) _______/10
Requirement #7 COA Analysis, Comparison & Recommendation (20 points) _______/20
Total (100 points) _______/100
REQUIREMENT #1: Running Estimate (10 Points. Three to four double-spaced pages)
You are the S-3 of the 6th Ranger Battalion conducting mission analysis on 27 January 1945 at the Ranger base camp at Calasiao on the Lingayen Gulf. Provide a complete movement estimate that LTC Mucci and his staff would use to develop plans and analyze various courses of action. Although you have the benefit of hindsight, write your running estimate as you would have on 27 Jan (in the present or future tense) rather than as an AAR in the past tense. Although there are some guides and formats to a generic estimate, as well as a sample medical estimate included with this examination, you can modify those formats or develop one to help you present your analysis to LTC Mucci. Your movement estimate should include, but is not limited to:
• Time available to conduct the operation before the Japanese decide to move or murder the POWs, and how much time to allocate to planning, preparation and execution.
• Maintaining secrecy in varied terrain during day and night operations.
• The appropriate balance of speed and security.
• The best time of day to initiate actions on the objective.
• The anticipated distances covered by, time required to, and rates of movement for:
o the Ranger advance to the POW Camp
o actions on the objective
o the movement of Rangers & former POWs and 6th Army to a link-up point
o Japanese counterattacks.
• How Filipino civilians and guerrillas, as well as the US Army Air Corps can help expedite friendly forces or impede enemy forces.
Essentially, your estimate should explain to LTC Mucci how the Rangers can get to the compound before the Japanese make the fatal decision, and how the task force and former POWs can link up with 6th Army before the Japanese catch that vulnerable group. The goal of the estimate is to help LTC Mucci plan for this mission by providing him specific information he probably doesn’t know, rather than general ideas which he probably does know. For example, stating that the POWs will move slowly is not helpful to LTC Mucci, while ESTIMATING that the POWs could move at one mile per hour for three hours before needing two hours for food and rest could be helpful to LTC Mucci and his staff.
REQUIREMENT #2: The Problem (10 Points. Approximately one-half of a double-spaced page)
Using previous course material, the Military Review article, and the student aid, articulate LTC Mucci’s problem including at least ONE critical element for each mission variable (METT-TC).
REQUIREMENT #3: The Mission (10 Points. Approximately one double-spaced page)
While developing his commander’s estimate, LTC Mucci brainstormed three different words to use for his ESSENTIAL TASK in the mission statement: Liberate, Raid, Secure. Citing your references, (a) provide a current US Army doctrinal definition for EACH of the three words (or dictionary definition if no doctrinal definition exists), and then (b) select and justify which one to include as the essential task in the Rangers mission statement. Note: You are not required to write a mission statement—only to select and justify which one word LTC Mucci should use as the essential task in his mission statement.
Mission Analysis: Through mission analysis, the commander and staff should understand the problem and the resources available to solve that problem. Each staff member is responsible for conducting his or her own running (staff) estimate that provides very detailed information within his or her area of responsibility. The staff then analyzes that information and synthesizes (packages) it into the mission analysis brief. The essence of staff work involves distilling mountains of information into nuggets of knowledge. One method through which staff officers do this is to process the facts (or WHAT) into information (by asking SO WHAT?), analyze the information to increase knowledge (by asking WHICH MEANS?), and apply judgment to gain an understanding (by asking THEREFORE?)
REQUIREMENT #4: Purpose and Task (30 Points total. 6 Points each. One to two double-spaced pages. See example response. You must write in sentences rather than bulletized form.)
SELECT FIVE OF THE EIGHT ELEMENTS FROM THE LIST BELOW.
• The Filipino Guerrillas
• The Alamo Scouts
• 1st Platoon Charlie Company
• 2nd Platoon Charlie Company
• 2nd Platoon Foxtrot Company
• The Filipino Civilians
• The Radio Team in Guimba
• The 6th US Army
For each element selected, (a) list the most important contribution (TASK) that it made during the operation, (b) explain why that contribution was needed (PURPOSE), and (c) explain how that contribution was synchronized with at least ONE other action that preceded, followed or occurred concurrent with it. When possible, use a tactical mission task from current US Army doctrine, even if the author did not use a proper task.
Example Response for the US Army Air Force: The American airplane disrupted (Task) the Japanese Guards so that the Rangers could crawl close to the POW camp undetected (Purpose). The Black Widow flew over the camp “at 1840, three-quarters of an hour before the attack was to begin,” (King p 64) while the Rangers were crossing the open field outside of the POW Camp.
REQUIREMENT #5: Commander’s Critical Information Requirements (CCIRs)
(10 Points. Approximately one-half of a double-spaced page)
Construct a logical IF, AND/OR, THEN sequence justifying LTC Mucci’s decision to assault on 30 January. You are not required to include OR in your response, but should include elements related to the enemy, your own multinational force, the POWs, and local support. (Keep in mind that a decision to delay on 29 January does not justify an assault on the 30th, because conditions could have been worse.)